Wednesday afternoon brings the highly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh announcing whether the Federal Reserve has decided to keep rates steady, cut rates or raise rates.
Here’s what Benzinga viewers predict will happen.
• What’s driving SPY stock today?.
Fed Meeting Preview
Appointed by President Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, Warsh faces a tough choice of following the data or listening to the president.
President Trump has been arguing for rate cuts for months and earlier this week told reporters aboard Air Force One “rates should be lowered,” as reported by Reuters. The president says the U.S. should have the lowest interest rate in the world, while calling Warsh “fantastic.”
For months, many experts saw a rate hike as likely in July given higher inflation data. The odds now point to rates staying the same, as they have since December.
Benzinga asked viewers of the morning “PreMarket Playbook” show what they think will happen during Wednesday’s episode.
“What do you think Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will announce today?” Benzinga asked.
The results are:
- Keep rates steady: 80%
- Raise rates 25 basis points: 12%
- Rate cut: 5%
- Raise rates 50 basis points: 3%
Overall, 80% of Benzinga viewers see rates being left alone. This follows the current estimate from the CME Group Fed Watch Tool, where 66.3% expect no change and 33.7% see a hike.
Fifteen percent of the 234 Benzinga viewers who participated in the survey see a rate hike, a decision that could see Trump take a different tone in support of Warsh.
Benzinga’s “PreMarket Playbook” airs Monday through Friday on YouTube at 8 a.m. and is hosted by Ryan Faloona.
The FOMC Press Conference takes place at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday and can be watched below.
What Prediction Markets are Saying
On prediction market Kalshi, users are betting more on a hike than Benzinga viewers. The market odds are currently:
- Maintain rates: 74%
- Hike rate by 25 basis points: 27%
- Hike rate by more than 25 basis points: 1%
- Cut rate by 25 basis points: <1%
The prediction market shows a 28% chance of a rate hike announcement Wednesday, nearly double what Benzinga viewers predicted in the poll. The odds for a rate cut are minimal on Kalshi compared to what the Benzinga poll showed.
Fed Rate History
The Federal Reserve cut rates three straight FOMC meetings in 2025, with 25 basis points in September, October and December.
Since the last cut in 2025, the rates have remained steady.
The Federal Reserve has eight scheduled FOMC meetings for 2026, with four already completed.
After Wednesday’s decision, the next chance for a scheduled rate cut or rate hike would be at the Sept. 15 to Sept. 16 two-day meeting.
Market on Watch
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) is trading down 1.18% to $732.19 on Wednesday ahead of the meeting.
Rate hikes are considered to be bad for the stock market and the ETF that tracks the S&P 500 could be pricing in the odds of a potential hike.
News of the rate being left unchanged could see a rally this afternoon. While minimal in odds, a rate cut could see the market spike with optimism.
The S&P 500 ETF is up 7.6% year-to-date in 2026.
Watch Wednesday’s “PreMarket Playbook” episode below:
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.
Image via Shutterstock
