Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE:CRCL) shares are trading lower after several analysts lowered their price forecasts following the company’s third-quarter results.
• Circle Internet Group stock is taking a hit today. Why are CRCL shares down?
Earnings Snapshot
EPS came in at 84 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 37 cents and rising from 64 cents a year earlier.
Total revenue and reserve income increased 17% year over year to $864.888 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $778.121 million.
Analysts Question USDC Growth Outlook
JPMorgan said EPS exceeded its 37-cent estimate, driven by a lower tax rate and higher revenue recognition from the Arc token presale.
Reserve income was largely in line at $658 million versus the $655 million expected. Average USDC balances fell 4% sequentially but grew 8% year over year, well below the approximately 65% average annual growth recorded over the previous four quarters, the analyst noted.
JPMorgan maintained its rating but lowered its price forecast to $100, citing slower USDC growth and muted RLDC expansion following Binance’s distribution partnership.
Future upside depends on a recovery in USDC balances, monetization of higher transaction volumes and potential adoption benefits from Genius implementation, the analyst added.
Needham analyst John Todaro said Circle beat revenue and EPS estimates, primarily driven by a one-time $182 million Arc token presale.
Arc launched on Sept. 16 with 11 founding validators and approximately $1.5 billion in assets. Of the $242 million presale, $60 million remains to be recognized in FY27, the analyst added.
Todaro expects Arc to diversify revenue from 2028 onward and strengthen USDC adoption. However, he lowered his price forecast to $103, citing slower USDC supply growth.
HC Wainwright & Co. analyst Mike Colonnese expects Circle’s monetization and USDC supply growth to accelerate in 2027, driven by CPN, Arc, StableFX and the pending Tazapay acquisition.
CPN’s annualized payment volumes exceeded $58 billion on Oct. 30, up from $23 billion on July 31, with meaningful revenue contributions expected in 2027. Colonnese also sees GENIUS Act implementation in January 2027 as a catalyst for USDC adoption.
The analyst lowered his price forecast to $100 from $104.
CRCL Stock Price Activity: Circle Internet Group shares were down 11.92% at $67.09 at the time of publication on Thursday.
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