Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are in the spotlight, with earnings on deck, its AI and robotics outlook in focus, recent analyst activity and a technical setup showing a recovery attempt under the 200-day average.
- Tesla stock is trading in a tight range. What should traders watch with TSLA?
Earnings Preview & History
Tesla is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on October 21 after the market closes. Analysts estimate earnings per share of 43 cents along with revenue of $27.90 billion. For the prior quarter, Tesla reported earnings per share of 33 cents, missing the consensus estimate of 50 cents. The company also posted revenue of $28.24 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $25.71 billion.
Beyond EPS: What Matters Most in Tesla’s Upcoming Earnings
Investors will be closely tracking Tesla’s outlook for Full Self-Driving, robotaxi and Optimus. Goldman Sachs said in a note this month that those updates are likely to matter more to the stock than earnings per share, and Tesla has begun putting its Cybercab into limited service in Austin. Automotive gross margin will also be in focus after Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating estimates.
Capital spending of more than $25 billion planned for 2026 and negative free cash flow of $1.1 billion last quarter will draw attention. So will whether energy storage margins recover from a sharp drop in the second quarter, after deployments of 13.7 GWh.
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions
The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $412.23. Recent analyst moves include:
- Jefferies: Hold (Raises Target to $400.00) (Oct. 12)
- Tigress Financial: Buy (Maintains Target to $550.00) (Oct. 8)
- UBS: Neutral (Raises Target to $391.00) (Oct. 7)
Tesla Trades 3.9% Below Its 200-Day Average as Momentum Improves
From a trend perspective, Tesla is still holding above its shorter-term baselines: it’s trading 1.4% above the 20-day SMA ($369.61) and 5.3% above the 50-day SMA ($356.08), which keeps the near-term structure constructive. At the same time, the stock is 3.9% below the 200-day SMA ($390.07), so rallies can still run into overhead supply before the longer-term trend fully improves.
Momentum is leaning better: MACD is above its signal line and the histogram is positive, which points to improving upside pressure versus the prior downswing. In plain terms, when MACD is above its signal line, it suggests bearish momentum is fading and buyers are starting to regain control.
The bigger-picture backdrop is still conflicted after the death cross in April (50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA), which often keeps longer-term investors cautious until price can reclaim the 200-day area. The 12-month performance remains down 13.28%, reinforcing that this is still a recovery attempt rather than a clean long-term uptrend.
- Key Resistance: $384.00 — a nearby round-number area sitting just below the 200-day SMA zone where rebounds can stall
- Key Support: $354.00 — a nearby level close to the 50-day SMA area where dip-buyers may look to defend trend support
Tesla Shares Trade Flat
TSLA Price Action: At the time of publication, Tesla shares are trading 0.93% lower at $374.53, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
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