Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares fell 13% on Thursday and continued to decline in Friday’s premarket session amid mounting AI infrastructure competition concerns.
What Is Driving Nebius Stock?
Nebius remains sensitive to the “Meta Compute” overhang. Investors remain concerned that Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) could rent excess computing capacity to external customers, increasing supply and pressuring neo-cloud pricing.
The concern contributed to Nebius’ 17.01% decline on July 1. Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney estimated Meta could generate $10 billion to $20 billion annually by selling excess AI compute.
Asset-Light Expansion Supports Growth
Nebius recently introduced a model under which partners finance and operate data centers while the company provides its AI cloud platform and software.
The strategy could accelerate capacity growth while reducing Nebius’ capital requirements.
The company also secured a contract worth more than $1 billion to provide Reflection AI with computing capacity through 2029, including access to Nvidia Corp.’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) GB300 chips.
Nebius Technical Outlook
Nebius closed at $167.05, reflecting a sharp short-term pullback despite strong longer-term gains.
The shares traded:
- 28.9% below the 20-day SMA of $235.08
- 25.7% below the 50-day SMA of $224.80
- 4% below the 100-day SMA of $174.01
- 21.5% above the 200-day SMA of $137.52
Trading above the 200-day average keeps the longer-term trend constructive. However, the stock’s position below the shorter-term averages and a bearish MACD signal indicate continued near-term pressure.
- Resistance: $173.27 to $174.01, followed by $224.80 to $235.08.
- Support: The 200-day SMA is near $137.52.
Despite the violent short-term pullback, Nebius remains one of the market’s top performers, posting a 219.93% year-to-date gain.
Nebius Earnings Preview
Nebius is estimated to report earnings on Aug. 6, 2026.
Analysts expect a loss of 73 cents per share, compared with a 38-cent loss a year earlier. Revenue is projected to rise from $ 105.10 million to $ 576.67 million.
The stock carries a consensus Buy rating from 17 analysts, with an average price target of $213.89.
Recent actions include:
- B of A Securities: Buy (Raises Target to $280.00) (June 8)
- BNP Paribas: Initiated with Neutral (Target $255.00) (June 2)
- DA Davidson: Neutral (Target $250.00) (May 18)
NBIS Price Action: Nebius shares were trading 1.90% lower at $168.50 in the premarket session on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro.
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