Good Morning Traders!
Today’s economic calendar brings us the remaining important data releases of the week as markets move toward Friday’s monthly options expiration. Weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims arrived and will receive the most attention, providing another update on labor market conditions. The July Leading Index follows at 10:00AM ET, with Natural Gas Inventories at 10:30AM ET. Treasury activity fills out the remainder of the session, culminating with the 30 Year TIPS Auction at 1:00PM ET. With relatively little important economic data scheduled for Friday, today’s releases represent the final meaningful macro checkpoints before the week closes.
MOPEX remains an important backdrop, particularly with expiration now only one session away. As monthly options approach expiration, accelerated time decay, position closures and rolls, and changes in dealer hedging requirements can influence price behavior around heavily positioned strikes. With the macro calendar becoming increasingly quiet after today, positioning and options related flows could take on greater importance into Friday. Watch whether the indices remain pinned and rotational around major levels or begin gaining acceptance outside those areas as expiration approaches.
Now, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY is currently trading around 767.75 as markets move deeper into MOPEX week with the final meaningful economic data of the week arriving today. Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30AM ET will provide another read on labor market conditions, while the July Leading Index follows at 10:00AM ET. If buyers defend 767.75, a move toward 773.75 may develop, followed by 779.75 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 785.75 would improve the short term structure and put buyers back in control.
If SPY loses 767.75 with conviction, sellers may press into 761.75. A breakdown there could expose 755.75, while continued weakness may bring the 749.75 region into focus. With Friday offering little in the way of major economic data, today’s releases and the market’s positioning into tomorrow’s monthly options expiration could have greater influence on how the week ultimately closes.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)
QQQ is currently trading around 714.25 and continues to show weakness relative to recent highs as technology remains sensitive to both Treasury yields and shifting risk appetite. If buyers defend this pivot, price may advance toward 721.25, followed by 728.25 if momentum strengthens. Sustained strength above 735.25 would indicate improving institutional demand across technology.
If 714.25 fails to hold, sellers may drive price toward 707.75. A deeper breakdown could expose 701.25, while continued weakness may bring the 694.75 region into play. With MOPEX tomorrow, watch whether QQQ remains contained around heavily positioned areas or begins expanding away from them as expiration related flows intensify.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
AAPL is currently trading around 316.75 and continues to demonstrate notable relative strength compared with several other mega cap technology names. If buyers defend this pivot, price may rotate toward 322.00, followed by 327.25 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 332.50 would reinforce the bullish short term structure.
If 316.75 breaks lower, sellers may test 311.75 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 306.75, while deeper weakness may bring the psychological 300 area into focus. Continued strength in AAPL while QQQ remains under pressure would be an important sign of relative institutional demand.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
MSFT is currently trading around 484.25 and remains below the psychologically important 500 level after its recent pullback. If buyers defend this area, price may recover toward 491.25, followed by 498.25 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 505.25 would reclaim 500 and materially improve the short term structure.
If 484.25 fails to hold, sellers may press into 477.25. A deeper pullback could test 470.25, while continued weakness may bring the 463.25 region into play. Until MSFT begins establishing acceptance back above 500, rallies into that region should be monitored for renewed selling pressure.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVDA is currently trading around 218.25 and remains an important leadership gauge for semiconductors and the broader technology complex. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 225.50 may develop, followed by 232.75 if momentum strengthens. Sustained trade above 240.00 would indicate renewed upside expansion and improving semiconductor leadership.
If 218.25 fails to hold, sellers may test 212.25 quickly. Continued downside could extend into 206.25, while deeper weakness may bring the 200.25 region into focus. NVDA’s ability to stabilize will be particularly important for determining whether recent QQQ weakness remains orderly or begins broadening across technology.
Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
GOOGL is currently trading around 343.75 and continues attempting to establish a durable base following its recent weakness. If buyers defend this level, price may rotate toward 350.25, followed by 356.75 if momentum improves. Sustained strength above 363.25 would indicate a more meaningful recovery attempt.
If 343.75 fails to hold, sellers may guide price toward 337.75. A breakdown there could expose 331.75, while continued weakness may bring the 325.75 region into play. Relative performance against QQQ remains important, particularly if broader technology begins recovering while GOOGL struggles to participate.
Meta Platforms Inc (META)
META is currently trading around 548.25 after experiencing significant selling pressure from the 600 area. If buyers defend this pivot, a recovery toward 555.75 may develop, followed by 563.25 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 570.75 would begin repairing the short term structure and suggest buyers are establishing a more durable base.
If 548.25 breaks lower, sellers may guide price toward 541.25. A deeper pullback could test 534.25, while continued weakness may bring the 527.25 region into focus. With META still displaying relative weakness, traders should look for sustained acceptance at higher prices rather than assuming the first bounce represents a larger reversal.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
TSLA is currently trading around 348.50 and showing improving momentum after extending its recent recovery. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 357.00 may develop, followed by 365.50 if momentum continues. Sustained strength above 374.00 would indicate stronger speculative participation and further improve the short term structure.
If 348.50 fails to hold, sellers may test 340.50 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 332.50, while deeper weakness may bring the 324.50 region into play. TSLA’s relative strength against several other large cap technology names is worth monitoring, particularly if broader risk appetite improves.
Final Word: Good luck and trade safely!
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
