Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) price direction may shift significantly based on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election.
Experts told Benzinga that the race appears to be split evenly and that market sentiment has already factored in a possible Trump victory, which could see Bitcoin experience a significant rally.
“A Trump win could see Bitcoin rally by $5,000 to $10,000, whereas a Harris victory may see a drop by $10,000 to $20,000,” according to Stuart Connolly, Chief Investment Officer at Deus X Capital.
Connolly also highlighted that Bitcoin’s price trajectory could continue on an upward path, estimating it might reach $150,000 within the next year regardless of the election outcome, given the broader market dynamics at play.
In a note sent to Benzinga, Bitfinex analysts noted that Bitcoin’s current low volatility levels indicate market caution.
This reflects a level of uncertainty as investors await the election results, which may determine near-term market shifts. Bitfinex analysts believe that an increase in volatility would be fitting as election dynamics intensify; however, they warn that if volatility remains absent, it could signal a deeper correction for Bitcoin on shorter timeframes.
“Apathy in the options market to price movements often reflects a more bearish sentiment than strong put buying,” they observed, indicating that without volatility, the market might lean towards a correction.
They also commented on the altcoin market, observing that non-Bitcoin assets are likely to remain subdued in the lead-up to the election.
Altcoins, particularly those outside the top 10 by market cap, have experienced a significant 45% decline since March, suggesting a prolonged period of investor caution in altcoin investments.
Technical analysts at Fairlead Strategies have taken a cautious stance as well.
In a note to Benzinga, they remain neutral on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, with the cryptocurrency recently testing resistance near $67,300.
The firm’s analysis shows that momentum has softened, and while Bitcoin’s weekly MACD indicator remains positive, the monthly MACD has been trending lower for several months, signaling a loss of strength behind Bitcoin’s cyclical uptrend.
“The slowing momentum supports our neutral long-term bias,” Fairlead analysts said.
Initial support is observed around the 50-day moving average, near $65,100, with secondary support at the weekly cloud level of $59,700.
Fairlead’s analysis for Ether presents a similar cautionary picture.
Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) has shown signs of declining momentum, testing initial support around $2,453.
Analysts note that should Ether break below this level, it could signal a short-term bearish trend with a possible retest of the longer-term support zone in the $2,030 to $2,141 range.
Ether’s recent downtrend since March continues to hinder its recovery potential, with analysts emphasizing that a substantial catalyst would be required to regain investor confidence.
“The indicators suggest that there is a good chance of a retest of long-term support in the $2030-$2141 zone,” they noted, further highlighting Ether’s weakened position compared to Bitcoin.
The influence of the U.S. election on Bitcoin and broader crypto markets is expected to be a primary topic of discussion at Benzinga’s Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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