Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could fall alongside SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), Arthur Hayes warned Wednesday, saying a massive central bank bailout rally takes hold afterwards.
Dilution Math Points to Falling AI Stocks
Hayes wrote in a Medium post that SpaceX’s share count has already grown 50% since its IPO while the stock price stayed flat, with another roughly 8.6 billion shares set to unlock by June 2027, mostly tied to Elon Musk’s vesting schedule.
Anthropic and OpenAI face even bigger headwinds, according to Hayes:
- Anthropic: faces 83% dilution by June 2027, no dividends planned, with all cash funding an estimated $900 billion in compute and data center spending
- OpenAI: worse cash burn and customer concentration than Anthropic, reportedly seeking a reduced $20 billion raise at a $1.25 trillion valuation, down from $30 billion and $1.5 trillion
All three went public to access corporate debt markets, Hayes said, since equity alone can’t cover hundreds of billions in capex.
He expects falling share prices to push debt investors toward demanding higher yields or skipping these deals entirely.
Credit Freeze Could Spread to Crypto Through Bank Balance Sheets
Hayes said falling AI stock prices could widen credit spreads and slow debt issuance, which matters for crypto since bank balance sheet growth has helped fund this year’s rally.
He’s watching one data point closely: the US banking system’s balance sheet fell week over week last week, which he reads as a sign of softening sentiment around AI credit markets.
Banks support the AI buildout in three ways, according to Hayes:
- Direct lending to AI and AI-adjacent companies
- Margin loans to stock speculators
- Proprietary trading in AI-linked stocks and bonds
If AI credit markets cool off meaningfully, he expects bank balance sheets to flatten or shrink, tightening the liquidity backdrop that’s been supporting Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
Hayes Expects a ‘Glorious’ Bailout Eventually
Hayes expects central banks worldwide to eventually print money to head off a broader financial crisis, since the global economy now leans heavily on continued AI infrastructure buildout.
He called that policy response “glorious” for Bitcoin holders, but cautioned the timing is uncertain and investors need patience before any bailout rally hits.
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