Elon Musk has two companies betting billions on futuristic technologies, but Fitch Ratings is putting more credit behind one than the other.
The ratings agency gave Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) a BBB rating with a stable outlook. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX), meanwhile, carries a higher BBB+ rating.
Tesla’s $25B Spending Bet
According to Fitch, the gap comes down to predictable cash flows, capital needs and what each company is asking creditors to fund.
Tesla held $43.5 billion in cash and marketable securities as of June 30, while EBITDA margins have remained in the mid-teens in recent years. But the carmaker’s balance sheet is about to face a very different test: 2026 capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion. That’s roughly three times its 2025 spending.
Beyond EVs, Tesla is spending on AI compute, Robotaxi, Optimus, semiconductor manufacturing, and other expansion projects. The company also said it could secure up to $30 billion in debt facilities to accelerate those investments.
Fitch expects all of this spending to push Tesla into negative free cash flow territory for at least the next several years, despite strong liquidity and EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid teens.
SpaceX’s Higher Rating Has a Different Foundation
SpaceX a BBB+ rating in June, citing its leading position in commercial launches and rapidly scaling recurring revenue from connectivity and AI-compute operations. The agency also expects EBITDA growth to keep leverage at or below management’s 2x-3x target range and noted more than $90 billion in pro forma liquidity.
Starlink is particularly important. SpaceX reported 12 million subscribers at the end of the second quarter, while connectivity revenue reached $4.3 billion, up 66% year over year. Connectivity generated $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA during the quarter, giving SpaceX a growing recurring-revenue engine alongside its launch business.
That distinction matters to creditors. SpaceX can pursue ambitious projects such as Starship and AI infrastructure while leaning on an established connectivity business that is already generating significant cash earnings.
Musk’s Credit Test
Tesla is asking investors to finance a dramatic expansion into physical AI, autonomy and robotics while its core auto business faces margin pressure. SpaceX is also spending heavily, but Fitch sees commercial launches and Starlink as established businesses that can support that investment cycle.
The one-notch gap between Tesla’s BBB and SpaceX’s BBB+ rating offers a useful snapshot of how creditors view Musk’s two capital-intensive empires.
Tesla has the cash, scale and profitability to fund its ambitions, but its rating reflects the uncertainty created by the size of its AI and robotics spending. SpaceX, meanwhile, has something Tesla is still building: a rapidly growing recurring-revenue engine that can help finance its next big bet.
Photo: Paulm1993 / Shutterstock – ek
