Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) could see stronger Apple Watch upgrade demand as new health features, improved sensing and unchanged pricing make the latest models more compelling, according to Counterpoint Research.
Apple launched the Watch Series 12 and Watch Ultra 4 on Wednesday. Both models feature the new S11 chip, a redesigned Health Sensing System and new on-device AI features. Prices remain unchanged at $399 for the Series 12 and $799 for the Ultra 4.
Counterpoint Sees Upgrade Cycle Taking Shape
Counterpoint Research analyst George Lesniak said the launch primarily targets Apple’s existing Watch users rather than customers switching from rival brands.
The upgrade case could be particularly strong for owners of older models. WatchOS 27 drops support for models older than the Series 9. As a result, Series 7 and Series 8 users will need newer hardware to access the latest Siri and health features.
Counterpoint also sees pent-up demand supporting fourth-quarter sales. Global smartwatch shipments fell 4% year over year in the second quarter. However, Apple’s shipments climbed 14%, the fastest growth among the five largest brands. Its global market share increased to 20.1% from 17%.
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Health Could Matter More Than AI
Lesniak expects health and sensing features to drive near-term adoption more than AI. The new readiness score combines several health signals into simple recommendations, strengthening Apple’s push to make the Watch a daily health companion.
Meanwhile, some Audio Intelligence features remain limited. Live Rewind and Siri Recap are slated for late-2026 beta releases, are English-only and will not launch in the European Union initially. Counterpoint therefore views AI as more of a 2027 demand catalyst.
Counterpoint also highlighted Apple’s decision to hold prices steady. The firm said the combination of a new chip, upgraded sensors and unchanged entry prices could help protect Apple’s mainstream smartwatch volumes.
Apple is also stepping up competition with Garmin Ltd. (NYSE:GRMN), Oura and Whoop in health and recovery tracking. Counterpoint said the new readiness and heart-rate variability features strengthen Apple’s pitch to athletes, a segment where Garmin and smart-ring makers have gained traction. Garmin’s smartwatch shipments rose 11% year over year in the second quarter.
Apple Stock Remains In Long-Term Uptrend
Apple stock traded slightly lower during Friday’s premarket session. The move came despite a firmer broader market, with Nasdaq futures up 0.56% and S&P 500 futures gaining 0.55%.
Apple remains in a longer-term uptrend. The stock trades about 14.4% above its 200-day simple moving average of $284.65 and 6.9% above its 100-day average of $304.73. However, its 20-day average of $315.28 remains below the 50-day average of $317.22, signaling some short-term caution.
Momentum has improved, with MACD above its signal line and a positive histogram. Traders may watch $335 as nearby resistance and $300.50 as key support.
Wall Street has a Buy consensus rating on Apple, with an average price forecast of $334.94. TD Cowen maintained Buy with a $400 price forecast Thursday, while Rosenblatt maintained Neutral at $303. Bank of America Securities maintained Buy but lowered its price forecast to $370.
AAPL Stock Price Activity: Apple shares were down 0.17% at $326.02 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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