Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is telling investors they still aren’t grasping the full scale of SpaceX’s ambitions, even after the company unveiled a $100 billion spaceport plan in Louisiana.
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In a Wednesday note, Jonas reiterated his Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX, implying more than 70% upside from Tuesday’s closing price.
“We do not believe investors appreciate the scale of what SpaceX is planning with Starship,” Jonas wrote, as reported by CNBC.
The Launch Math
The note follows SpaceX’s disclosure that it’s building a new Starbase launch facility in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, part of a $100 billion buildout designed to support thousands of launches annually. The site is planned to eventually house 15 launch pads, up from the three SpaceX currently operates, with three more expected to be fully operational by the end of 2027.
Jonas argues the sheer size of the expansion shows the stock isn’t pricing in launch cadence beyond his 2040 estimates. Notably, he says SpaceX doesn’t even need Starbase Louisiana fully built out to hit those numbers.
Morgan Stanley’s model conservatively assumes just two launches per pad per day, meaning its 2040 forecast of roughly 5,800 Starship launches annually would require only eight pads, less than SpaceX’s planned total of 15.
An ‘Attractive’ Entry Point
On valuation, Jonas called SpaceX “attractively valued,” noting shares trade at only ten times sales (with 70% growth) and 25 times EBIT (113% growth) on Morgan Stanley’s fiscal 2028 forecasts.
The call builds on Jonas’s earlier thesis that SpaceX is a “potential generational compounder,” with more than half of his $300 target tied to the company’s AI ambitions via its merger with xAI, and the rest split between launch services and Starlink connectivity.
SPCX Stock Still Trailing Its Highs
The stock has struggled since its public debut, when it entered the market already valued above $1 trillion — a debut Jonas believes has left the market underappreciating just how big SpaceX’s Starship and AI buildout could ultimately become.
SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was up 0.81% at $139.07, well off the post-IPO high of more than $225, at the time of publication Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro.
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