Conservative political commentator and co-founder of The Daily Wire, Ben Shapiro offered his analysis on the possible dynamics of the 2028 presidential election.
In a podcast hosted by Patrick Bet-David on Wednesday, Shapiro expressed doubts about Secretary of State Marco Rubio‘s potential presidential run, citing his risk-averse political history. He also speculated about the possible negative outcomes of a run against Vice President JD Vance for Rubio.
Shapiro said Rubio faces significant political risks in any 2028 scenario involving JD Vance. He argued that running against Vance could end Rubio’s political career whether he wins or loses, while sitting out could leave his future dependent on Vance’s decisions. Given this “prisoner’s dilemma,” Shapiro believes Rubio is likely to avoid a presidential run out of risk aversion.
“It’s a rough election cycle anyway because the president’s riding in the 30s and the country’s in the mood for something new — and you lose, you’re done,” he said.
Shapiro believes that JD Vance is a likely nominee for the 2028 election, but also voiced concerns about Vance’s ability to secure a general election win. He compared this to President Donald Trump‘s narrow victory in 2024.
The commentator also discussed the challenge Vance might face in outperforming Trump with any particular group in American politics. He concluded by stating that while he has no personal issues with Vance, he disagrees with some of his political stances.
That being said, Shapiro commented, “But if I were putting my money on it — if I were in the Kalshi markets — I’d put my money on Vance.”
Trump’s 2028 Succession Battle Intensifies
Shapiro’s analysis comes amid speculation about the 2028 presidential candidates. Earlier this month, Trump pushed back on reports that he has privately urged donors to support Vance for the 2028 GOP nomination, saying it is too early to discuss his successor. While Trump has praised both Vance and Rubio and even floated them as a potential “dream team,” he has not endorsed either candidate.
Meanwhile, Vance has largely avoided discussing a 2028 run, while Rubio has also downplayed his ambitions. An early conservative straw poll, however, showed Rubio leading Vance by 36 points.
Last month, top GOP financier Ken Griffin has reportedly expressed his support for Rubio over Vance for the potential 2028 GOP presidential primary. Griffin, who contributed more than $100 million during the 2024 election cycle, has a history of supporting Rubio.
However, Anthony Scaramucci warned that Trump’s leadership could hurt the political futures of rising Republicans like Vance and Rubio, saying Trump tends to “eat his young.” He also predicted that growing voter dissatisfaction and an anti-incumbent mood could lead to Democratic gains in the 2026 midterms and potentially the 2028 presidential election, although he acknowledged Democrats could still lose with weak candidates.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image: David W Cerny/Reuters via Imagn Images
