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calendar_month Aug 11, 2026

Strait of Hormuz Normalization Odds Decline As Trump Demands Compensation From Iran: Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying

President Donald Trump on Monday responded to Iran’s demand for compensation by placing his own demands.

Trump Demands Compensation From Iran

Trump, in a Truth Social post, asked for compensation from Iran for people the country has injured and killed in wars, conflicts and “hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors” killed by Tehran. Trump also called for compensation for families of those killed on the USS Cole.

The President added that “I have instructed my representatives to put this firmly into any, and all, future negotiations.”

Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying

Amid the demand for compensation from both sides, prediction market odds for normalization of the Strait of Hormuz have declined.

Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin is currently betting on a contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by…?”

Over $17 million has been bet on the contract so far.

Bettors have placed less than 1% probability that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by August 15, down by 8%. The probability for August 15 is 4%, down by 40%.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo courtesy: Below the Sky / Shutterstock