U.S. stock futures were mixed on Monday, as the Dow Jones index slipped and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, following Friday’s higher close.
Investors will be closely tracking the cost-of-living checkup this week, featuring July inflation data along with updates on consumer spending and sentiment. These reports will offer vital insight into whether consumer resilience can withstand mounting geopolitical pressures and elevated energy prices.
Meanwhile, Iran stated the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the U.S. meets its demands, despite a deal with Oman entering its “final stages.” The geopolitical standoff comes as President Donald Trump noted the U.S. is “only semi-negotiating” with Tehran, keeping energy markets on edge.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.65%, and the two-year bond was at 4.21%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool’s projections show markets pricing a 43.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve hiking the current interest rates during its September meeting.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | -0.07% |
| S&P 500 | 0.16% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.47% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.15% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were higher in premarket on Monday. The SPY was up 0.15% at $774.44, while the QQQ advanced by 0.41% to $726.01.
Stocks In Focus
Check-Cap
- Check-Cap Ltd. (NASDAQ:MBAI) fell 4.26% as it announced a 1-for-7 reverse share split, effective on Aug. 12.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MBAI maintains a weak price trend in the long and medium terms but a strong trend in the short term.
Rocket Lab
- Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) rose 2.95% ahead of its earnings scheduled to be released after the closing bell. Analysts expect earnings loss of 8 cents per share on revenue of $231.1 million.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that RKLB maintains a weak price trend in the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term.
Plug Power
- Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) gained 6.42% ahead of its earnings scheduled to be released after the closing bell. Analysts expect a loss of 8 cents per share on revenue of $168.8 million.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that PLUG maintains a weak price trend in the long, short, and medium terms.
BIO-Key International
- BIO-Key International Inc. (NASDAQ:BKYI) fell 7.92% as the company, along with its strategic partner Visualforma, was awarded a new contract to enhance digital identity security for a Portuguese national security agency.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that BKYI maintains a weak price trend in the short, long, and medium terms.
T. Rowe Price Group
- T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (NASDAQ:TROW) advanced by 8.10% after its recent second-quarter earnings report highlighted $1.91 billion in revenue, slightly below estimates.
- Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that TROW maintains a strong price trend in the short, long, and medium terms, with a good value score.
Cues From Last Session
Consumer discretionary, information technology, and materials stocks recorded the biggest gains on Friday to lead most S&P 500 sectors higher, while energy and communication services stocks bucked the trend to close lower.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Dow Jones | 0.28% | 54,036.93 |
| S&P 500 | 0.62% | 7,757.64 |
| Nasdaq Composite | 1.30% | 26,690.62 |
| Russell 2000 | 1.10% | 3,034.49 |
Insights From Analysts
Mohamed A. El-Erian paints a picture of a split macro environment characterized by “underlying macro volatility and pronounced market dispersion.”
While risk assets and tech stocks surged—pushing the S&P 500 to record highs—El-Erian emphasizes that “what was good news for Wall Street did not translate seamlessly to Main Street.”
Key Economic Expectations
- A Frictional Real Economy: Weak labor data, marked by an unexpected decline of 23,000 July payrolls, signals persistent supply-side frictions. Lower-income households face increasing pressure after having “exhausted their pandemic-era financial buffers and are actively pushing back against cumulative price inflation.”
- Monetary Policy Shift: Financial markets are adjusting to a “Fed Regime Change” away from predictable, hands-on guidance. The cooling labor market has lowered the implied probability of a September rate hike to ~40%, though forthcoming CPI and PPI data remain critical swing factors.
- Capital Flows & AI Demand: The corporate backdrop relies heavily on bond market funding for AI infrastructure, though market technicals indicate that “the worst of this forced selling may now be behind us” following recent tech deleveraging.
Overall, El-Erian anticipates persistent uneven growth, heightened yield volatility, and elevated geopolitical risks keeping markets vulnerable.
Upcoming Economic Data
Here’s what investors will be keeping an eye on this week.
- No data is scheduled to be released on Monday.
- On Tuesday, July’s NFIB index of small business optimism data will be released by 6:00 a.m., July’s existing home sales data will be out by 10:00 a.m., and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s second quarter household debt and credit report will be published by 11:00 a.m. ET.
- On Wednesday, July’s CPI, core CPI, headline CPI year-over-year, and core CPI year-over-year data will be released by 8:30 a.m., and July’s monthly Treasury balance data will be out by 2:00 p.m. ET.
- On Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at 8:15 a.m., initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 8, July’s PPI, and July’s ex-food & energy PPI data will all be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at 8:40 a.m. ET.
- On Friday, July’s retail sales data will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.
- June’s manufacturing & trade inventories data and August’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey data will both be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets
Crude Oil WTI futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.00% to hover around $78.96 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.14% to hover around $4,348.44 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.12% higher at the 99.6550 level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 0.60% higher at $65,165.82 per coin over the last 24 hours.
Asian markets closed higher on Monday, except Australia’s ASX 200. China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, India’s Nifty 50, Japan’s Nikkei 225, and South Korea’s Kospi indices rose. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
