The S&P 500 rallied on Thursday as semiconductor stocks rebounded and oil prices eased, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will open lower on Friday.
The S&P 500 gained 0.81% to close at 7,543.64. However, the July 10 Polymarket contract implied just a 20% probability that the index would open higher on Friday, reflecting expectations of a weaker start after the latest rally.
Why That Number Matters
Thursday’s rally underscored how quickly sentiment can shift as investors weighed easing oil prices against persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Semiconductor stocks once again led the market higher, reinforcing the view that artificial intelligence remains the primary driver of this year’s bull market even as investors rotate between sectors.
Markets are also watching the U.S. debut of South Korean memory-chip giant SK Hynix on Friday, alongside second-quarter earnings from Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), for fresh signals on investor appetite heading into earnings season.
The Bull Countercase
Cooling oil prices helped improve risk appetite after President Donald Trump said Iran had reached out seeking negotiations, while officials from Qatar and Pakistan continued efforts to restart talks between Washington and Tehran.
Chip stocks remained the market’s biggest source of strength. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) rose 2.5%, while Micron (NASDAQ:MU) gained 4.5% and Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) jumped 7.6%. Optimism also spread across Asia, with SoftBank surging more than 11% and South Korean technology stocks advancing ahead of SK Hynix’s Nasdaq debut.
Still, futures turned lower overnight as investors remained wary of the geopolitical backdrop and elevated inflation risks. Investors also remain cautious that persistent price pressures could keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path, even as the market continues to trade near record highs.
S&P 500 futures slipped 0.22% early Friday.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 7,491.60, above Wednesday’s close of 7,482.71, meaning the July 9 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded $25,832 in traded volume before settling — the lightest participation since the start of July. Betting activity has steadily cooled after volumes surged above $374,000 on July 1, suggesting traders have become more cautious as geopolitical headlines continue to drive market sentiment.
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