Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is heading into its second-quarter earnings report with continued momentum across its core businesses, according to BNP Paribas, which maintained its Outperform rating and $345 price forecast on the stock.
The firm said it expects Amazon to report second-quarter results during the week of July 27, with broad-based strength led by accelerating growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS).
AWS Growth And Earnings Expectations
BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones expects investors to focus on four key areas: AWS growth and capital spending trends amid data center component inflation, the impact of Prime Day on retail sales, advertising growth and operating income margins as the company continues investing heavily in AI infrastructure.
The brokerage expects AWS revenue growth of 33% to 35% in the second quarter, above the consensus estimate of about 31%. It also projects operating income of about $25 billion, compared with the Street consensus of $23.6 billion.
Third-Quarter Outlook And AI Spending
For the third quarter, BNP Paribas believes investors are looking for Amazon to guide toward the high end of its outlook, with revenue of about $207 billion and operating income of $26 billion. Those figures are above current consensus estimates of $204 billion and $25 billion, respectively.
The firm added that investors are also likely to expect higher full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance as rising data center component costs increase AI infrastructure spending.
Retail Trends And Financial Estimates
BNP Paribas said data indicate Amazon’s Online Stores and Third-Party Seller Services businesses remain broadly in line with Wall Street expectations, implying about 14% year-over-year revenue growth. The firm left its financial estimates unchanged ahead of the earnings release.
Valuation And Analyst View
Despite ongoing concerns about the return on investment from data center spending, BNP Paribas said it expects continued AWS acceleration and solid execution across Amazon’s businesses.
The firm also said the stock’s current valuation remains an attractive entry point, with shares trading broadly in line with their six-month average forward enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple.
Earnings And Analyst Outlook
Amazon is expected to report second-quarter earnings on or around July 30.
Wall Street expects earnings of $1.82 per share, up from $1.68 a year earlier. Revenue is projected to increase to $196.02 billion from $167.70 billion.
The stock carries a consensus Buy rating with an average analyst price forecast of $320.55. Recent analyst actions include:
- TD Cowen: Maintained Buy and lowered its price forecast to $340 on July 8.
- Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight and raised its price forecast to $313 on July 2.
- Truist Securities: Maintained Buy and raised its price forecast to $320 on May 29.
Amazon Technical Analysis
Amazon traded about 0.6% above its 20-day simple moving average of $239.53.
However, the stock remained about 5.2% below its 50-day simple moving average of $254.20. That suggests the intermediate-term recovery has yet to gain momentum.
The relative strength index (RSI) stood at 46.61, indicating neutral momentum. The reading suggests sellers still hold a slight advantage, although the stock is not yet in oversold territory.
The longer-term trend remains constructive. Amazon continues to trade above its 200-day simple moving average of $233.21. The 50-day moving average also remains above the 200-day moving average following a golden cross formed in May.
Traders are watching resistance near $249.50, close to the 50-day moving average. Initial support sits around $225, where buyers previously stepped in.
AMZN Stock Price Activity: Amazon.com shares were down 0.99% at $241.20 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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