Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) regained the No. 2 position in China’s smartphone market during the 2026 618 shopping festival after offering steep discounts on its latest iPhone lineup. However, analysts said the gains came at the cost of pricing, and sales still declined from a year earlier amid tougher comparisons.
Apple’s Discounts Boost Market Share
According to Counterpoint Research, Apple’s iPhone sales fell 9% year over year during the four-week 618 promotional period, despite a strong sequential rebound.
The company began promotions about a month before the annual shopping festival, offering savings of up to 2,000 yuan (about $290) on the iPhone 17 Pro series through official discounts, e-commerce platform incentives, and trade-in offers. Those promotions helped Apple climb to the No. 2 spot in China’s smartphone rankings.
The research firm said the year-over-year decline reflected tougher comparisons, as Apple had run even more aggressive promotions for the iPhone 16 series during last year’s 618 event.
China’s Smartphone Market Faces Broad Slowdown
The broader Chinese smartphone market remained under pressure. Counterpoint estimated total smartphone sales fell 13% from a year earlier during the promotional period as rising memory prices forced manufacturers to raise prices and scale back discounts. The weaker promotional environment dampened already soft consumer demand.
Huawei Outperforms Rivals
Huawei was the standout performer, becoming the only major smartphone brand to post year-over-year growth. The company captured a 21% market share, driven by strong demand for the Enjoy 90 Pro Max and solid performance from the Mate 80.
Counterpoint also noted that Chinese Android vendors, including OPPO, HONOR, vivo and Xiaomi, all posted double-digit sales declines as manufacturers prioritized profitability over aggressive discounting.
Counterpoint Sees More Weakness Ahead
Looking ahead, Counterpoint expects China’s smartphone market to weaken further in the second half of 2026. The firm said vendors and supply chain partners have signaled that higher prices are likely to persist, while manufacturers continue adopting a profit-first strategy and trimming shipment plans. As a result, Counterpoint forecasts a double-digit decline in China’s smartphone shipments for the full year.
Apple Stock Technical Analysis
Apple continues to trade well above its major moving averages, signaling a strong long-term uptrend. The stock sits 6.8% above its 20-day simple moving average, 7% above its 50-day SMA, 13.6% above its 100-day SMA and 16.2% above its 200-day SMA.
The 20-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, while the 50-day stays above the 200-day SMA, reinforcing a bullish “golden cross” formation.
Momentum indicators also remain constructive. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is above its signal line, suggesting buyers continue to control the near-term trend despite the stock’s extended rally.
On the upside, resistance is near $317.50, close to Apple’s 52-week high of about $317.40. A decisive move above that level could attract additional buying interest. On the downside, initial support sits around $287.50, near the rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
Apple Earnings And Analyst Outlook
Apple is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on July 30. Wall Street expects earnings of $1.89 per share, up from $1.57 a year earlier, on revenue of $108.86 billion compared with $94.04 billion in the prior-year period.
The stock trades at about 37.9 times earnings, reflecting a premium valuation.
Analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating with an average price forecast of $324.16. Recent analyst moves include Evercore ISI reiterating an Outperform rating with a $365 price forecast, KGI Securities downgrading the stock to Hold with a $315 price forecast, and Bank of America maintaining a Buy rating with a $380 price forecast.
Apple Price Action
AAPL Stock Price Activity: Apple shares were up 0.65% at $314.68 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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