With President Trump hinting that a deal with Iran could soon happen as discussions on a deal have been approved by the “highest level of Iranian leadership,” hopes for traffic returning to normal at the Strait of Hormuz have increased once again.
Trump on Thursday called off “scheduled” strikes on Iran after saying that details had been “approved by all parties.”
Trump Says Hormuz Could Open Soon
“The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe,” Trump said, according to a Reuters report.
Iran has, however, said that it has not reached a final deal with the U.S.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $19.7 million has been bet on the contract “When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?”
Bettors have placed a 46% probability on traffic returning to normal “Before Sep 1, 2026,” up by 17%. Some are, however, more cautious, betting on things returning to normal a bit later.
The “Before Oct 1, 2026” and “Before Nov 1, 2026” options have 51% and 56% probability, respectively, as per bettors.
For context, data from the UN Trade and Development shows that the average number of ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz in February, before the Iran war began, was 129 per day. As per a tracker, currently, 3 ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
