SpaceX has done something no company in history has done: put a number on the largest addressable market ever claimed in an S-1 filing.
The number is $28.5 trillion — roughly equivalent to the entire annual GDP of the U.S., and SpaceX says it is going after all of it.
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Elon Musk‘s rocket company is set to go public on Friday under the ticker SPCX, targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and raising $75 billion — the largest IPO in history.
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities broke down what investors are actually buying. At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX is not a typical space bet. It is a $28.5 trillion TAM (Total Addressable Market) play.
SpaceX’s TAM Breakdown
SpaceX breaks its market into three verticals: Space, Connectivity and AI.
Space — the core launch and space-enabled solutions business — is, ironically, the smallest slice at $370 billion.
Connectivity comes in at $1.6 trillion, split between $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile. Those numbers alone would make SpaceX a formidable infrastructure play.
Crucially, SpaceX’s TAM figures exclude China and Russia entirely, meaning the upside is scoped against Western markets only.
Then comes AI, and the numbers get staggering.
SpaceX claims $26.5 trillion in AI addressable market: $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions and $600 billion in digital advertising.
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) have each spent years and hundreds of billions of dollars fighting for pieces of those segments. SpaceX is saying it competes there, too.
The kicker is Enterprise Applications. SpaceX pegs that segment alone at $22.7 trillion — nearly 80% of the entire claimed TAM, and a figure that approaches the total U.S. GDP of roughly $29 trillion.
Compromising the majority of TAM, Enterprise AI is not a side business in SpaceX’s filing. Rather, it is the investment thesis.
The Bottom Line
Ives frames SpaceX as the next step in the AI Revolution and the data economy. In Ives’ view, the company is a vertically integrated AI and connectivity platform that happens to operate in orbit.
At $1.75 trillion on debut, SpaceX would rank among the handful of most valuable companies on earth.
Bulls will argue the valuation looks reasonable against $28.5 trillion of opportunity. Bears will note that TAM claims in S-1 filings are historically optimistic.
Either way, Ives paints the bigger picture as SpaceX is going public — and it will anchor the next phase of the AI trade.
Photo: berni0004 / Shutterstock
