Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) is trading sharply higher on Wednesday. The upward price action follows a highly bullish long-term forecast published on X and Substack by Eric Jackson, the founder and hedge fund manager of EMJ Capital.
Jackson outlined a thesis predicting that the real estate platform could replicate the massive historical returns of generational tech giants.
The $500 Long-Term Stock Thesis
While Wall Street analysts track Opendoor with modest price forecasts between $1 and $8, Jackson issued a bold public forecast for OPEN on Wednesday, projecting a price of $82 by 2028 with a 60% probability, $200 by 2030 with a 20% probability, and $500 by 2033 with an 8% probability.
Reflecting on his conviction in the company, Jackson noted that he first bought OPEN at 73 cents and publicly disclosed the position at 87 cents. With the stock now trading above $4, he argued that transparency has been central to his investment approach. He also emphasized that even his base-case scenario offers substantial upside.
Paradigm Shift In Real Estate Architecture
Jackson attributes his aggressive forecasts to a fundamental shift toward the tokenization of real estate. Following a meeting with Opendoor CEO Kaz Nejatian at the company’s Toronto offices, Jackson highlighted a “three-layer tokenization build” that separates land equity from the physical structure.
Comparisons To Tesla and Shopify
Jackson directly linked Opendoor’s structural positioning to previous industry transformations. Jackson argued that OPEN exhibits the same structural characteristics seen in some of the market’s biggest long-term winners, pointing to Carvana Co.‘s rise from single-digit prices to roughly $487, Shopify Inc.‘s climb from its $20 initial public offering to more than $1,700, and Tesla Inc.‘s surge from single digits to around $400.
He cited these examples to illustrate how companies positioned at the center of major architectural or technological transitions can generate extraordinary returns over time.
The Only Positioned Public Operator
Jackson argues that competitors like Rocket Companies Inc. lack the foundational prerequisite of “asset-class control.” Because Opendoor takes direct physical possession of homes via its iBuying model, Jackson notes it is the only public company holding the pricing-data depth and vertical integration required to host “title-on-chain” infrastructure at scale.
Additional tailwinds include Opendoor’s upcoming inclusion in the Russell 3000 Index on June 26, which Jackson notes will trigger non-discretionary buying from index funds.
OPEN Stock Price Activity: Opendoor Technologies shares were up 7.14% at $4.65 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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