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calendar_month Nov 12, 2026

Mary Peltola to Defeat Incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska? Crypto Bettors Think So as Senate Race Turns Controversial

Cryptocurrency bettors are convinced that Democratic nominee Mary Peltola will unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R-Alaska) in Alaska’s Senate race.

Peltola Remains the Frontrunner

Betting crowd on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently gives Peltola a 99% chance of victory. If elected, Peltola would become the first Democrat to win an Alaska Senate race since 2008.

Sullivan, running for a third term, faces just a 1% chance of victory.

More than $8.7 million has been wagered on the outcome, making it one of the most closely watched midterm races.

Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, allowing voters to rank candidates from most to least preferred instead of choosing just one. If their top choice doesn’t get a majority, their vote may move to their second choice.

Polymarket Alaska
Source: Polymarket

The Battle for Alaska

The election has been marred by significant controversy.

In a lawsuit filed last month, the Trump administration sought to hold up certification of Alaska’s pivotal Senate race in the event that the Republican incumbent is defeated, according to Reuters.

The lawsuit alleged that the presence of a second Dan Sullivan could mislead voters and reduce support for the incumbent GOP lawmaker. A federal judge dismissed the lawsuit.

Additionally, a lawsuit by Peltola’s campaign team sought the immediate ‌release of records identifying absentee ballots. A judge denied the request, saying it was not “reasonable.”

Photo courtesy: Philip Yabut / Shutterstock.com