Anthony Scaramucci predicted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could be out of President Donald Trump‘s administration within days, responding to a journalist’s question about whether the Pentagon chief would survive the week.
Prediction Markets Weigh Hegseth’s Departure Odds
“Under but way under by year-end,” Scaramucci, a former White House Communications Director, wrote in an X post, responding to The New Yorker journalist Susan Glasser, who asked, “over/under on Hegseth lasting the week?”
His remarks come as Hegseth faces criticism over the Iran war, military leadership shake-ups and previous security controversies.
Prediction markets reflect growing uncertainty over Hegseth’s future. At the time of writing, Polymarket traders assigned approximately 36% odds to his departure by December 31, while Kalshi priced a roughly 27% probability of an exit before December 1. Both figures represent trading expectations rather than confirmed developments.
Earlier, Kalshi bettors placed a 62% probability on Hegseth leaving before February 2027, highlighting speculation about his position even before the November 3 elections.
Military Firings And Signal Controversy Fuel Scrutiny
The Associated Press reported last week that Hegseth fired Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Pentagon’s top military planner, without publicly explaining the decision. Nearly two dozen senior officers have departed during his tenure, prompting bipartisan demands for greater transparency.
Hegseth also faced an inspector general investigation after sharing sensitive details about planned military strikes against Yemen’s Houthi militants in Signal messaging groups in 2025. The watchdog found that his actions created risks to U.S. personnel and military operations, although it did not conclude that he improperly declassified the information.
Democratic Midterm Victory Raises Impeachment Pressure
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) previously urged Trump to fire Hegseth, declaring, “It’s the honorable thing to do.” Massie pledged to reintroduce impeachment articles over the Iran conflict after the elections.
AP confirmed early Wednesday that Democrats had captured both chambers of Congress, potentially expanding investigations into Trump’s administration and its conduct of the war. However, Hegseth remains in office, and Trump has not announced plans to replace him.
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