An expert from China has questioned whether Democrats can deliver a decisive “blue wave” in the U.S. midterm elections, warning that even sweeping congressional gains may not stop President Donald Trump from pursuing an aggressive foreign policy agenda.
Diao Daming, a professor at Beijing’s Renmin University, said Democrats are well positioned to retake the House, while the Senate remains more difficult to predict. However, he added that victories in both chambers could still produce only narrow Democratic majorities, limiting the party’s ability to control legislation or articulate a unified governing strategy, reported the South China Morning Post on Sunday.
“Even if the Democrats come back, it may feel like a fragile, even narrow, even ineffective majority,” he said.
He also questioned whether Democrats had built enough momentum to claim a genuine blue wave, saying their campaign had focused heavily on Republican criticism while offering fewer clear solutions for inflation, elevated oil prices and trade-related economic concerns.
“That’s why some people say it’s not a blue wave but a red undertow,” Diao said, describing Democratic gains that may lack the force required to significantly redirect U.S. politics.
Diao added that Trump could concentrate more intensely on his international legacy during a potentially weakened presidency, relying on executive orders to work around Congress. He added, “On the other hand, [in areas] he believes he can control or achieve results quickly, he may also take some risky actions.”
Meanwhile, Meng Weizhan, a social sciences researcher at Shanghai’s Fudan University told the publication that even if Democrats gained control of both chambers of Congress, they would struggle to enact their full policy agenda because of Trump’s veto power. He added that Republicans could narrowly retain control of the Senate while Democrats win the House.
Could Midterm Showdown Reshape Trump’s Agenda?
Diao’s remarks come as Democrats hold an 8.2-point national polling lead over Republicans, while Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, with 61% disapproving. Rising living costs, energy prices, healthcare and immigration are emerging as key voter concerns ahead of the midterms. Democrats are targeting competitive Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as Republicans currently retain control of both chambers of Congress.
The possibility of a Democratic takeover has already prompted planning inside the Trump White House. Senior White House officials, including Stephen Miller and Russell Vought, have reportedly been developing plans since April to advance Trump’s agenda without congressional approval if Democrats take control of both chambers. The strategy includes executive actions on tariffs, immigration, housing and federal spending, while exploring the limits of presidential authority and potential legal challenges.
Meanwhile, Republican divisions could further complicate the post-election landscape. Former Trump strategist Steve Bannon predicted a GOP “civil war” after the election and warned that the post-midterm lame-duck session could bring fierce congressional battles over the debt ceiling, government spending, defense policy and AI, with potential implications for defense contractors, tech stocks and Treasury yields.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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