Mastercard Inc. (NYSE:MA) stock bucked Friday’s broader market sell-off as Wall Street analysts raised their price forecasts, citing stronger growth prospects heading into 2027 despite concerns about cash flow.
The payments giant outperformed the Nasdaq Composite, which plunged 2.99%, and the S&P 500, which fell 1.46%, as investors weighed accelerating U.S. payment volumes, expanding value-added services and emerging opportunities in artificial intelligence-driven commerce.
KeyBanc Capital Markets and Bank of America Securities both raised their price forecasts following Mastercard’s third-quarter results, although BofA flagged concerns about the company’s ability to convert stronger earnings into cash.
Mastercard reported third-quarter revenue growth of 14%, while value-added services revenue increased 19%, according to BofA. These services include fraud prevention, cybersecurity and marketing tools.
KeyBanc Sees Stronger Growth Ahead
KeyBanc analyst Andrew Schmidt said Thursday that strong execution, pricing and value-added services support a clearer growth outlook for 2027.
Schmidt expects cross-border travel spending to improve as new client wins gain momentum and the company moves past challenges tied to the Middle East and portfolio transitions.
He described Mastercard’s fourth-quarter 2026 outlook as “prudent and a favorable jumping off point for 2027.”
Schmidt also highlighted agentic commerce, digital assets, cybersecurity and commercial payments as growth drivers.
He expects Mastercard to deliver mid-to-upper-teens earnings-per-share growth.
KeyBanc maintained its Overweight rating and raised its price forecast to $735 from $722.
BofA Flags Cash Flow Concerns
BofA said Friday that investors are increasingly focused on the quality of Mastercard’s growth.
“The debate is increasingly about the composition and quality of growth,” the firm wrote.
U.S. switched volume growth accelerated to 9% in October from 7% in the third quarter, while cross-border volume growth slowed to 10% from 11%.
However, cash conversion weakened despite stronger earnings. BofA attributed the decline to higher customer incentive payments, litigation expenses and the timing of customer settlements.
“We remain constructive on the diversified growth engine, while watching whether stronger earnings translate into cash,” BofA wrote.
The firm maintained its Buy rating and raised its price forecast to $775 from $735, based on 29 times its earnings-per-share estimate for the following 12-month period.
MA Stock Price Activity: Mastercard shares were up 0.12% at $636.48 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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