Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Thursday that President Donald Trump may restart military action against Iran after the midterms, as prediction-market traders price in a much higher risk of renewed hostilities after the Nov. 3 election.
Murphy Warns of Post-Midterm Iran War
Murphy shared a video on X of his remarks at a Middle East Institute event, where he discussed one of his classified briefings with the military leadership.
“Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election,” the lawmaker said. “And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane.”
Murphy, fiercely critical of Trump’s handling of the conflict, said the move would lead to “devastating escalation” and fail to achieve any objectives.
Will Hostilities Resume?
Murphy’s comments followed Trump’s statement that the conflict “could be over whenever I wanted it to be over.” The president said that the war needed to end “properly,” with a guarantee that Iran would never obtain a nuclear weapon.
The U.S. military has reportedly prepared options for renewed strikes against Iran, including potential attacks on infrastructure if Trump orders another offensive after the elections. Iran has threatened retaliation against U.S. allies in the Gulf.
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Prediction Markets Have Their Say
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket currently prices in an 88% chance that the ceasefire continues through the midterms, down from 81% the day before.
However, the odds steadily decline after the elections, falling from 83% on Nov. 4 to as low as 25% by Dec. 31.
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