Good Morning Traders!
Today’s main event is the Fed Interest Rate Decision at 2:00PM ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30PM ET. Markets are pricing roughly a 90 percent chance that rates stay unchanged, and this meeting brings no new economic projections, so the statement wording and Warsh’s answers on inflation and oil will carry the weight. Earlier, at 8:30AM ET, the advance September goods trade balance and wholesale inventories arrive, adding detail on growth, and weekly oil inventories follow at 10:30AM ET.
Overnight, oil climbed again after the Houthis said they attacked a major Saudi refinery, with Brent back above 110 dollars a barrel, and the 10 year Treasury yield is hovering around 5 percent. Higher oil and yields are a headwind for stocks because they can keep inflation and borrowing costs elevated. NQ is firmer than ES this morning, and among the Magnificent 7, GOOGL and NVDA are leading premarket while AAPL and MSFT lag. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close today, Amazon follows Thursday, and Apple reports November 2.
With the Fed in the afternoon and two megacap reports after the bell, the morning may trade cautiously. Watch whether SPY and QQQ hold above Tuesday’s highs on the first pullback, whether volume picks up after Tuesday’s light session, and whether chip leadership continues.
Now, we will discuss NQ, ES, SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (NQ)
NQ is currently trading around 29943.75, holding above Tuesday’s high of 29881.25 after the futures pushed through it overnight. That old high is now the first level buyers want to defend, because staying above it keeps the rebound from last week’s lows intact. If price slips back under 29881.25 and cannot recover, the futures drop back inside Tuesday’s range, with Tuesday’s low at 29288.00 marking the bottom of that range. With the Fed decision this afternoon and Microsoft and Alphabet reporting after the close, the tone could change later in the day.
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)
ES is currently trading around 7767.75, sitting just under Tuesday’s high of 7772.75, a level the futures tagged overnight but have not cleared. If buyers push through 7772.75 and hold above it, ES would be trading above everything it saw on Tuesday, and the two day bounce stays on track. If price fades instead, Tuesday’s low at 7699.75 is the deeper reference, and a slide back toward it would wipe out Tuesday’s gains. The Fed decision at 2:00PM ET is the main event for the index.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY is currently trading around 770.75, a bit above Tuesday’s 769.66 close and just under Tuesday’s 771.14 high after a second straight up day. The 770 strike, where options positioning is heavy, sits right under price, so the first question is whether buyers can hold that area and then clear 771.14. If they do, 772.29, the October 20 high, is the next hurdle. Above that, the October 21 close at 773.09 and high at 774.44 mark the top of last week’s range.
If SPY slips back under 769.66 and cannot recover, the next shelf is 767.73, Monday’s high, which buyers pushed through on Tuesday. Below that, Tuesday’s 765.21 low sits right on the 765 strike, one of the heaviest options strikes near price, and losing it would put the recent bounce in doubt. A return above 771.14 would weaken the downside case. Tuesday’s rally came on the lightest share volume in two weeks, and its single largest options trade was a buy of about 8.4 million dollars in 755 puts expiring Friday.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)
QQQ is currently trading around 724.50, gapping above Tuesday’s 722.87 high after a 1.3 percent gain and pressing into 724.55, the October 19 high. The 725 strike, where options positioning is heavy, and the October 21 close at 725.20 sit just above, so this is a crowded area. If buyers clear 725.20 and hold, price may stretch toward 727.95, the October 21 high, and then the 730 strike, where Tuesday’s heaviest net call buying showed up.
If QQQ fades back below 722.87, the gap starts to fill, and Tuesday’s 721.25 close becomes the first support. Below that, the 720 strike lines up with 719.71, the October 21 low, and that is the area buyers need to defend to keep this week’s rebound intact. Losing it without a quick recovery would point toward the 715 strike. A return above 725.20 would weaken the downside case. Microsoft and Alphabet carry heavy weight in QQQ, so tonight’s reports could move it sharply after hours.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
AAPL is currently trading around 345.25, slipping in premarket after Tuesday’s 0.9 percent gain and sitting right on the 345 strike, one of its heaviest options strikes. If buyers hold this area, the first test overhead is 345.75, last Friday’s low, then the 347.09 to 347.10 pair, Monday’s high and Tuesday’s close. Clearing Tuesday’s 347.78 high would open a path toward 348.22 to 348.36, the close and high from October 22, with the 350 strike as the bigger ceiling.
If AAPL drops through the 345 strike and cannot recover, 343.91, Monday’s close, is the first support, then Tuesday’s 342.39 low. Losing that opens the way to 341.03, Monday’s low, with the 340 strike just below it. A move back above 347.10 would weaken the downside case. Apple’s moves have recently been out of step with the rest of big tech, which is worth remembering when Microsoft and Alphabet report tonight. Tuesday’s largest call buying was at the 355 strike for next week, and Apple reports its own earnings after the close on November 2.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
MSFT is currently trading around 529.25, a little below Tuesday’s 531.33 close as investors wait for its earnings report after the close today. Price sits just under the 530 strike, where Tuesday’s flow showed the heaviest net call buying, so reclaiming 530.00 is the first job. If buyers manage that and push back above 531.33, the 532.60 to 534.70 band, which holds Monday’s close and the highs from Monday, last Thursday and Tuesday, is the ceiling to watch into the report.
If MSFT slips below 528.33, Tuesday’s low, and cannot recover, the next area is 525.77, last Friday’s high, which lines up with the 525 strike, one of the heaviest strikes on its board. Below that sits 521.69, Monday’s low. A return above 531.33 would weaken the downside case. Cloud growth and AI spending will be the main focus tonight, and traders will also be listening for any comment on reports of a large voluntary buyout program.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN is currently trading around 253.75, holding most of Tuesday’s 1.6 percent gain and sitting just below Tuesday’s 254.68 high. Above that, the 255 strike, where options positioning is heavy, lines up with 255.22, the October 19 low, and 255.60, the October 15 high, so 255.00 to 255.60 is the real hurdle. If buyers clear it and hold, the next chart reference is 258.41, the October 22 high, with the 260 strike just above. Tuesday’s flow showed the heaviest net call buying at the 265 strike for this Friday’s expiration, the day after Amazon reports.
If AMZN slips back below 253.10, Tuesday’s close, and cannot recover, the 250.00 to 250.79 area, where the 250 strike sits next to Monday’s high, is the first support. Losing that puts Tuesday’s 248.71 low back in view. A return above 254.68 would weaken the downside case. Amazon also received FCC approval for its 11.5 billion dollar Globalstar satellite deal, but the bigger catalyst is Thursday’s earnings after the close, where cloud growth and AI spending will be in focus.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVDA is currently trading around 219.75, gapping above Tuesday’s 219.19 high and the October 19 high at 219.62 as chip stocks extend their rally. SK Hynix reported record results overnight and said its memory chips are sold out through 2029, which is helping the whole group. The next level is the 220 strike, one of the heaviest on Nvidia’s board. If buyers push through it and hold, 222.19, the October 21 high, is next, with the 225 strike, the heaviest of all, above that.
If NVDA falls back below 219.19 and cannot hold the gap, Tuesday’s 217.94 close and the 217.50 strike are the first area to watch. Below that, Tuesday’s 215.53 low sits right on the 215 strike, where Tuesday’s flow showed the heaviest net call buying. Losing 215.53 would erase Tuesday’s gains. A return above 220.00 would weaken the downside case. Nvidia does not report until November 17, so tonight’s AI spending updates from Microsoft and Alphabet matter more for it this week.
Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
GOOGL is currently trading around 325.25, up about 1.4 percent in premarket after a report said OpenAI is considering buying Google’s custom AI chips. That gap puts price above Tuesday’s 323.88 high and last Friday’s 324.53 high, ahead of Alphabet’s earnings after the close today. If buyers hold above 324.53, the next hurdles are the 330 strike, where Tuesday’s flow showed the heaviest net call buying, and 331.43, the October 22 high. Clearing that area would start to repair last week’s damage.
If GOOGL slips back below 323.88 and the gap starts to fill, 322.00, the October 22 low, is the first support, followed by Tuesday’s 320.58 close. Losing that would put the 316.60 to 316.86 lows from Monday and Tuesday back in play, the bottom of the recent slide. A return above 324.53 would weaken the downside case. With earnings tonight, these levels matter most during regular hours, since the biggest move may come after the bell.
Meta Platforms Inc (META)
META is currently trading around 622.50, bouncing slightly after Tuesday’s 1.6 percent drop to 620.19, its lowest close since early September, on its heaviest volume in more than a month. The first hurdle is the 625 strike, one of the heaviest on Meta’s board and close to the reported pricing of its new share sale. If buyers reclaim 625.00 and then Monday’s 627.80 low, price may work back toward Tuesday’s 628.46 high and Monday’s 630.56 close.
If META slips back below 620.19 and loses Tuesday’s 619.21 low without recovering, there is little chart history until 609.74, the September 8 low, which sits near the 610 strike, a heavy put strike. That is a wide gap, so moves could be quick. A return above 627.80 would weaken the downside case. Meta reported last week and is now digesting a very large stock sale to fund its AI buildout, so tonight’s reports from Microsoft and Alphabet could set the tone for AI spending names.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
TSLA is currently trading around 409.00, extending Tuesday’s 4.0 percent jump to 407.46, its highest close since July 10. Price is already above Tuesday’s 408.45 high, and the 410 strike, where Tuesday’s flow showed heavy net call buying, sits just overhead. If buyers clear 410.00 and hold, the next chart reference is 413.16, the July 10 high, and above that the 420 strike, the heaviest call strike on Tesla’s board. Holding above 410.00 would keep the breakout story alive.
If TSLA slips back under 408.45 and then loses 407.46, the gap above Tuesday’s close is gone and the 400 strike, the heaviest open interest strike overall, becomes the key area to defend. Below that, Monday’s 397.27 high and Tuesday’s 395.25 low mark the base of Tuesday’s breakout. A return above 410.00 would weaken the downside case. Tesla has been the strongest Magnificent 7 stock in October, helped by robotaxi expansion headlines, but it has run a long way in two days.
Final word
Good luck, trade safely, and have a great Wednesday!
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
