Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) CEO Dan Schulman says Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) could face a bill of up to $500 billion if it wants to compete directly with U.S. wireless carriers.
The estimate is not a SpaceX spending plan, but it captures the scale of the challenge Verizon sees: building a terrestrial network could require years of investment in towers, spectrum and the systems needed to run a national telecom business.
Verizon’s $500 Billion Estimate
During Verizon’s third-quarter earnings call, Schulman estimated that a hypothetical SpaceX terrestrial network could cost “somewhere between $300 billion and half a trillion” over seven or eight years.
He did not provide a detailed cost model. Instead, he outlined what a carrier-scale buildout could involve: 65,000 to 80,000 macro sites, backhaul using fiber and potentially satellites, radio access network equipment, and “a tremendous amount of spectrum.” SpaceX would also need retail operations, customer service and back-office systems, he said.
The comments came in response to a question about SpaceX and Starlink entering the core mobile market.
Schulman argued that satellite connectivity alone would have a limited addressable market compared with terrestrial networks, particularly in suburban and urban areas.
“We always knew that they needed a terrestrial network to have any chance at providing a competitive service,” he said.
Can SpaceX Find a Shortcut?
Schulman’s argument is that SpaceX may not be able to sidestep conventional wireless economics simply because it already operates a satellite constellation.
“If they build one, they’re going to look and feel like every other network,” he said, adding that there would be “no magic wand” or “radically lower structural cost advantage.” In his view, building a network would ultimately leave SpaceX with similar capabilities and cost structures to existing carriers.
Schulman estimated that a full buildout would take at least four to six years. That timeline could give incumbents time to improve their services, although it remains Verizon’s assessment of a potential entry scenario — not a confirmed SpaceX plan.
Verizon Is Taking the Threat Seriously
Despite the cost estimate, Schulman did not dismiss SpaceX’s ability to execute. “I also operate under the assumption that everything SpaceX says they will do, they will do, and that they will execute flawlessly,” he said.
The question is whether SpaceX can combine satellite infrastructure, spectrum access, partnerships or other assets into a cheaper path than the one Verizon anticipates.
For investors, the $500 billion figure should be treated as an estimate of the potential scale of a terrestrial buildout, not a verified SpaceX budget.
The key variables to watch are concrete moves by SpaceX on spectrum, tower infrastructure and carrier partnerships — and whether it signals an ambition to build a nationwide network rather than focus on satellite connectivity.
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