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calendar_month Oct 15, 2026

Fastenal Analyst Cuts Estimates After Q3 Results

Shares of North America’s largest fastener distributor, Fastenal Co (NASDAQ:FAST), tanked in early trading on Thursday, despite the company reporting upbeat third-quarter results.

While the company’s September average daily sales were disappointing, EBIT margins were meaningfully better than expected, according to DA Davidson analyst Chris Dankert.

The Fastenal Rating: Dankert reiterated a Neutral rating and price target of $51.

The Fastenal Thesis: The company’s September average daily sales growth of 14.4% year-on-year came in significantly below investor expectations of 17%-18%, Dankert said in the note.

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Fastenal’s September sales rose 1.7% month-on-month, well below the typical seasonal growth of 4.0%, he added.

The analyst noted, however, that September was only the second time the company’s sales grew slower than seasonality so far in 2026.

Fastenal’s gross margin of 44.8% exceeded Street expectations of 44.6%, partly due to favorable timing that kept GM otherwise in line, Dankert said.

He added that the company’s gross margin contracted by 50 basis points (bps) year-on-year due to:

  • Ongoing price and cost headwinds
  • An increase in unfavorable customer mix
  • Rising fuel costs

However, the company’s strong SG&A control resulted in a “material EBIT margin beat,” even as Fastenal continued to take market share, albeit at a slightly more modest pace than in the recent past, the analyst noted.

He further highlighted that:

  • Operating margin expanded by 90 bps year-on-year to 21.5%, coming in better than consensus of 21.0%
  • This was achieved despite lower gross margin and elevated fuel costs
  • SG&A as a percent of sales improved 130 bps year-on-year to 23.3% beating the forecast of 23.5%.
  • This was driven by “impressive headcount control.”

FAST Price Action: Fastenal shares declined 3.55% to $50.16 at the time of publication on Thursday.

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