Economist Steve Hanke backed Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-Ky.) criticism of President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax-and-spending law, reviving his warning that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” would expand federal spending and debt rather than deliver fiscal restraint.
Hanke Revives His 2025 Fiscal Warning
“Rep. Thomas Massie hits the nail on the head,” Hanke wrote in a post on social media platform X on Tuesday.
“As I predicted back in April of 2025: ‘Trump’s big, beautiful budget bill is SMOKE & MIRRORS. It will expand gov’t spending & the US national debt.’”
Massie, one of the legislation’s most persistent Republican critics, recently reiterated the argument he made before voting against the House version in May 2025.
“We are not rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic for this country. We are putting coal in the boiler and setting a course for the iceberg,” Massie said on the House floor in September. He argued that Congress could not simultaneously cut taxes, increase spending and credibly claim debt would fall.
Massie had previously warned that financing the legislation through additional debt could ultimately act like a tax, while other Republican fiscal hawks also objected to its cost.
Trump Signed The Sweeping Law In July
Congress ultimately passed the legislation and Trump signed it on July 4, 2025. The package extended major provisions of the 2017 tax cuts while changing Medicaid, food-assistance and student-loan programs and adding funding for defense, homeland security and immigration enforcement.
CBO Projects Trillions In Added Deficits
The Congressional Budget Office’s latest projections underscore the scale of the deficit and debt increases that Hanke and Massie warned about, although they do not validate every element of their arguments.
In February, CBO estimated the law will increase cumulative federal deficits by about $4.2 trillion from 2025 through 2034 compared with its January 2025 baseline. It projects public debt at 126% of GDP in 2034, versus 117.1% without the law.
CBO also estimates higher borrowing will raise interest costs, with the law adding hundreds of billions of dollars in debt-service expenses. The agency expects the legislation to increase economic output somewhat, but says stronger demand, additional borrowing and modest inflationary pressure also push interest rates higher.
Massie has continued highlighting those costs, recently saying Americans are effectively paying thousands of dollars each year in federal debt interest.
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