Good Morning Traders!
Today’s session begins with markets digesting yesterday’s FOMC decision while another meaningful batch of economic data arrives, The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, matching expectations, with policymakers voting unanimously. Chair Warsh emphasized inflation as the Fed’s predominant focus and said he would be hard pressed to characterize financial conditions as restrictive. The projections pointed toward another hike later this year, leaving markets to determine how much additional tightening ultimately needs to be priced into the curve.
One of the more interesting post-FOMC dynamics is the growing distinction between the front and back ends of the Treasury curve. The Fed is directly tightening short term rates to address inflation, while longer dated yields are also being influenced by forces outside traditional monetary policy, including enormous AI and data center capital requirements, commodity pressures, and geopolitical risk. That means movements in the 10 Year yield may not always provide a simple read on expectations for the next Fed decision. For equity traders, particularly in technology, understanding whether yields are moving because of Fed expectations, inflation, or longer term capital demand becomes increasingly important.
Today’s releases include Philly Fed Business Outlook, Weekly Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, followed by Pending Home Sales. Together, these reports provide a fresh look at manufacturing, labor conditions, and housing and help markets assess the economic backdrop the Fed is tightening into. While the underlying data largely predates yesterday’s rate decision, it can provide additional context on whether the economy entered this latest tightening move from a position of resilience or was already showing signs of slowing.
The 10 Year TIPS Auction at 1:00PM ET provides an additional rates catalyst and could be particularly interesting given yesterday’s Fed decision and the ongoing focus on longer dated yields. With markets simultaneously digesting tighter short term policy and elevated long term financing costs, watch the shape of the yield curve, technology breadth, and market acceptance around key levels for confirmation. The post-FOMC reaction often continues well beyond the initial afternoon move as institutions reposition around the new policy outlook.
Now, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY is currently trading around 760.50 as markets digest yesterday’s FOMC decision while simultaneously preparing for another meaningful 8:30AM ET data window. The Fed delivered the expected 25 basis point hike, but the larger question for equities is how markets ultimately price the path of rates from here. If buyers defend 760.50, a move toward 766.50 may develop, followed by 772.50 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 778.50 would materially improve the short term structure.
If SPY loses 760.50 with conviction, sellers may press into 754.50. A breakdown there could expose 748.50, while continued weakness may bring the 742.50 region into focus. The relationship between equities and the yield curve should remain particularly important today as markets digest the Fed while reacting to fresh labor, housing, and manufacturing data.
The 10 Year TIPS Auction at 1:00PM ET creates another potential rates catalyst. With longer dated yields already central to the post-FOMC discussion, the auction’s reception could matter more than it normally would.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)
QQQ is currently trading around 712.50 as technology digests a Fed that tightened policy while simultaneously expressing confidence in the broader economic backdrop. If buyers defend this pivot, price may advance toward 719.50, followed by 726.50 if momentum strengthens. Sustained strength above 733.50 would indicate improving institutional demand across technology.
If 712.50 fails to hold, sellers may drive price toward 706.00. A deeper breakdown could expose 699.50, while continued weakness may bring the 693.00 region into play. The distinction between short and long rates becomes especially important for growth stocks now, so watch whether the 10 Year yield confirms or diverges from movement at the front end of the curve.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
AAPL is currently trading around 334.00 and continues to demonstrate considerable relative strength despite broader macro volatility. If buyers defend this pivot, price may rotate toward 339.25, followed by 344.50 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 349.75 would reinforce the bullish short term structure.
If 334.00 breaks lower, sellers may test 329.00 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 324.00, while deeper weakness may bring the 319.00 region into focus. Continued outperformance during the post-FOMC adjustment would remain a constructive indication of institutional demand.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
MSFT is currently trading around 494.75 and remains directly beneath the psychologically important 500 level. If buyers reclaim and establish acceptance above that area, price may advance toward 502.00, followed by 509.25 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 516.50 would materially improve the short term structure.
If 494.75 fails to hold, sellers may press into 487.75. A deeper pullback could test 480.75, while continued weakness may bring the 473.75 region into play. With long duration technology particularly sensitive to yields, the battle around 500 should remain an important sentiment gauge.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVDA is currently trading around 216.50 and remains an important leadership gauge for semiconductors and the broader technology complex. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 223.50 may develop, followed by 230.50 if momentum strengthens. Sustained trade above 237.50 would materially improve the short term structure and indicate renewed semiconductor participation.
If 216.50 fails to hold, sellers may test 210.50 quickly. Continued downside could extend into 204.50, while deeper weakness may bring the psychological 200 area into focus. NVDA is especially relevant to the current rates discussion because the enormous capital requirements surrounding AI infrastructure are increasingly connected to long dated financing conditions.
Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
GOOGL is currently trading around 346.50 and continues attempting to build on its recent stabilization. If buyers defend this level, price may rotate toward 353.00, followed by 359.50 if momentum improves. Sustained strength above 366.00 would indicate a more meaningful recovery attempt.
If 346.50 fails to hold, sellers may guide price toward 340.50. A breakdown there could expose 334.50, while continued weakness may bring the 328.50 region into play. Relative performance against QQQ remains particularly important after GOOGL’s extended period of underperformance.
Meta Platforms Inc (META)
META is currently trading around 680.00 and continues to demonstrate exceptional relative strength compared with several other mega cap names. If buyers defend this pivot, a push toward 688.00 may develop, followed by 696.00 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 704.00 would reinforce the bullish structure and continued institutional demand.
If 680.00 breaks lower, sellers may guide price toward 672.50. A deeper pullback could test 665.00, while continued weakness may bring the 657.50 region into focus. META’s ability to maintain strength despite a tighter policy backdrop remains an important relative strength signal.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
TSLA is currently trading around 362.50 and continues to consolidate within its recent recovery structure. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 371.00 may develop, followed by 379.50 if momentum continues. Sustained strength above 388.00 would reinforce bullish momentum and indicate stronger speculative demand.
If 362.50 fails to hold, sellers may test 354.50 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 346.50, while deeper weakness may bring the 338.50 region into play. TSLA can amplify broader changes in risk appetite, making today’s post-FOMC rates environment particularly relevant.
Final Word: Good luck and trade safely!
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
