The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) fell 1.3% to $81.16 by 10:30 a.m. Thursday, its lowest level since May 2004, after August producer inflation ran at 5.4% year-over-year and pushed the 10-year yield to 4.90% and the 30-year to 5.30%.
The fund has now round-tripped more than two decades of price action, erasing the entire post-2008 duration rally. From its 2020 peak near $180, TLT is down roughly 55%.
Adding to the pressure, President Donald Trump pledged a $5,000 “dividend” to adult citizens Wednesday night in Dallas if Republicans hold both chambers in November.
This commitment would cost the Treasury north of $1.2 trillion, with no funding mechanism, eligibility rules or timeline attached.
The Treasury executes a $6 billion buyback of off-the-run securities Thursday, but the size did little to ease the pressure on long-dated yields.
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