Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock moved over 10% higher on Thursday as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) broke out past the $80,000 level. Investors frequently treat Strategy stock as a leveraged equity proxy for Bitcoin due to the company’s significant corporate treasury holdings of the asset.
The Nasdaq is up 0.84% while the S&P 500 has gained 0.49%.
On Wednesday, Bernstein lowered their price forecast on Strategy from $450 to $350 while maintaining an Outperform rating.
Bernstein noted the cut reflects an updated Bitcoin cycle timeline and faster-than-expected equity dilution from share sales.
Long-Term Outlook For Sovereign Debt And Bitcoin
Bernstein set a $500,000 bull case for Bitcoin by 2029, driven by currency debasement and rising national debt.
In a note cited by The Block, analysts stated that “the 40-year era of falling interest rates is over.”
Strategy holds 840,447 Bitcoin, representing roughly 4% of total supply. VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel noted on X that 59% of Bitcoin’s supply has remained unmoved through a 50% drawdown.
Technical Analysis
MSTR is now trading 32% above its 20-day SMA ($104.83) and 38.4% above its 50-day SMA ($100.04), which tells you the near-term trend has turned sharply higher. It’s also 8.6% above the 100-day SMA ($127.48), but still trading 2.2% below the 200-day SMA ($141.60), leaving the longer-term trend line as the next “prove it” area.
RSI is 73.11, which puts the stock in overbought territory and signals the move is getting stretched in the short run. RSI is essentially a speedometer for price—when it’s this high, it often means upside can continue, but pullbacks and choppy consolidation become more likely.
The bigger-picture trend is still trying to repair itself after the death cross in October 2025 (50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA). That’s consistent with the 12-month performance of -59.50%, even as the current rally attempts to rebuild a base off the June low.
- Key Resistance: $149.50 — a nearby overhead area that lines up with the stock’s attempt to reclaim the longer-term trend zone near the 200-day averages
- Key Support: $118.50 — a prior buyer-defense area that sits closer to the stock’s recent uptrend structure and potential pullback zone
MSTR Price Action: Strategy shares were up 11.81% at $137.73 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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