Good Morning Traders!
Today’s economic calendar brings one of the more important and information dense data windows of the week. July Personal Income, Personal Spending, Real Personal Spending, headline PCE and Core PCE all arrive alongside the second reading of Q2 GDP, Personal Consumption, the GDP Price Index, and Core PCE. Preliminary Durable Goods Orders and several underlying capital goods measures are also released simultaneously. The combination gives markets a broad update on inflation, consumer strength, economic growth, and business investment all at once.
PCE should command particular attention because it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Traders will be watching both headline and Core PCE for evidence that inflation pressures are continuing to moderate or proving more persistent. At the same time, Personal Spending and the revised GDP figures will help determine whether economic growth remains resilient. The market reaction could therefore become more complicated if the data sends conflicting signals. Cooler inflation alongside resilient spending and growth could be received constructively, while hotter inflation combined with strong activity could push Treasury yields higher as markets reassess the path of monetary policy.
Durable Goods and the nondefense capital goods measures add another layer by providing insight into business investment and underlying demand. Because all of these releases arrive simultaneously, the headline algorithms may create an immediate move before traders have fully processed the details. The relationship between equities, Treasury yields, and the dollar after the initial volatility should provide a better indication of how the market ultimately interprets the report.
DoE energy inventories follow at 10:30AM ET, while Treasury activity becomes relevant later with the 2 Year FRN Auction at 11:30AM ET and the 5 Year Note Auction at 1:00PM ET. The 5 Year auction could create a second meaningful rates catalyst after the morning data has been absorbed. With inflation, growth, consumer activity, business investment, and Treasury supply all in focus today, expect the potential for multiple volatility windows and avoid assuming the first 8:30AM move necessarily defines the session.
Now, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY is currently trading around 765.75 as markets prepare for an important 8:30AM ET data window featuring PCE inflation, personal income and spending, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, and durable goods orders. With inflation, growth, and consumer activity all being updated simultaneously, the collective message from these releases could quickly influence Treasury yields and broader risk sentiment. If buyers defend 765.75 following the initial reaction, a move toward 771.75 may develop, followed by 777.75 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 783.75 would materially improve the short term structure.
If SPY loses 765.75 with conviction, sellers may press into 759.75. A breakdown there could expose 753.75, while continued weakness may bring the 747.75 region into focus. With so much information arriving at once, traders should be cautious about interpreting the first move too quickly, particularly if inflation and growth data send conflicting signals.
Treasury yields should provide an important confirmation signal throughout the session. The 5 Year Note Auction at 1:00PM ET creates another potential volatility window after markets have had several hours to digest the morning data.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)
QQQ is currently trading around 710.25 and remains particularly sensitive to today’s PCE inflation data and the subsequent reaction in Treasury yields. A softer inflation reading could provide support for rate sensitive growth stocks, while hotter inflation could pressure technology if yields move higher. If buyers defend 710.25, price may advance toward 717.25, followed by 724.25 if momentum strengthens. Sustained strength above 731.25 would begin repairing the recent short term weakness.
If 710.25 fails to hold, sellers may drive price toward 703.75. A deeper breakdown could expose 697.25, while continued weakness may bring the 690.75 region into play. Watch whether semiconductors and mega cap technology confirm the index reaction, particularly if QQQ makes a large move immediately following the data.
The combination of PCE and GDP makes today’s rates reaction more nuanced than a standalone inflation report. Strong growth paired with persistent inflation could pressure rate expectations, while moderating inflation accompanied by resilient growth could provide a more constructive backdrop for technology.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
AAPL is currently trading around 309.75 and continues to show relative stability despite broader volatility across technology. If buyers defend this pivot, price may rotate toward 315.00, followed by 320.25 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above 325.50 would reinforce the constructive short term structure.
If 309.75 breaks lower, sellers may test 304.75 quickly. Continued downside pressure could bring the psychological 300 level into focus, followed by 294.75 if weakness accelerates. Relative performance against QQQ should remain important following the morning macro data.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
MSFT is currently trading around 488.50 and continues attempting to recover toward the psychologically important 500 level. If buyers defend this area, price may advance toward 495.50, followed by 502.50 if momentum builds. Sustained acceptance above 500 would materially improve the short term structure and suggest buyers are beginning to regain control.
If 488.50 fails to hold, sellers may press into 481.50. A deeper pullback could test 474.50, while continued weakness may bring the 467.50 region into play. MSFT’s reaction alongside QQQ should provide a useful indication of whether institutional demand is returning to large cap technology.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVDA is currently trading around 213.75 and remains an important leadership gauge for semiconductors and the broader technology complex. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 220.75 may develop, followed by 227.75 if momentum strengthens. Sustained trade above 234.75 would materially improve the short term structure and signal stronger semiconductor participation.
If 213.75 fails to hold, sellers may test 207.75 quickly. Continued downside could bring the psychological 200 area into view, with 201.75 serving as the next major region before deeper weakness develops. NVDA’s response to changes in Treasury yields should be particularly important today given the stock’s sensitivity to broader growth and risk sentiment.
Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
GOOGL is currently trading around 347.50 and continues attempting to build on its recent stabilization. If buyers defend this level, price may rotate toward 354.00, followed by 360.50 if momentum improves. Sustained strength above 367.00 would indicate a more meaningful recovery and improving institutional participation.
If 347.50 fails to hold, sellers may guide price toward 341.50. A breakdown there could expose 335.50, while continued weakness may bring the 329.50 region into play. Continued relative improvement against QQQ would strengthen the case that GOOGL is beginning to emerge from its recent period of underperformance.
Meta Platforms Inc (META)
META is currently trading around 578.50 and has continued recovering from its recent selloff as buyers work to repair the short term structure. If buyers defend this pivot, a push toward 586.00 may develop, followed by 593.50 if momentum builds. Sustained strength above the psychological 600 area would represent a significant improvement and put buyers back in control of an important reference.
If 578.50 breaks lower, sellers may guide price toward 571.50. A deeper pullback could test 564.50, while continued weakness may bring the 557.50 region into focus. Holding recent gains while QQQ remains volatile would be a constructive sign of improving relative strength.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
TSLA is currently trading around 350.25 and continues to consolidate following its recent recovery. If buyers defend this pivot, a move toward 358.75 may develop, followed by 367.25 if momentum continues. Sustained strength above 375.75 would reinforce the improving short term structure and indicate renewed speculative demand.
If 350.25 fails to hold, sellers may test 342.25 quickly. Continued downside pressure could extend into 334.25, while deeper weakness may bring the 326.25 region into play. With a major macro data window before the open, traders should be prepared for TSLA to amplify broader risk on or risk off movement.
Final Word: Good luck and trade safely!
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
