Piper Sandler is planting its flag in the new space trade with a clear pecking order: AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) gets the Overweight nod, while SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) are kept in neutral orbit as richly valued rocket primes whose multi‑year upside already looks priced in.
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In its inaugural “Final Frontier” industry note, the firm argues that vertically integrated launch players like SpaceX and Rocket Lab are “probably best‑positioned over a multi‑year period,” but says the cleaner one‑year risk‑reward sits with ASTS and its satellite‑to‑smartphone story.
ASTS – Overweight, $100 Price Target
AST SpaceMobile is pitched as the pure‑play on turning everyday smartphones into satellite phones via direct‑to‑device broadband, not just SOS text messaging.
By partnering with, rather than competing against, major mobile network operators such as AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) and Vodafone, ASTS plugs into roughly 3 billion existing subscribers and taps into scarce spectrum without having to build a consumer brand from scratch.
“ASTS isn’t going directly to the consumer, but is instead offering service through existing carriers,” the note says, arguing that MNO partnerships both reduce customer‑acquisition friction and harden the moat against Starlink’s competing direct‑to‑cell push.
The firm’s $100 price target rests on a 20x 2031 EV/EBITDA multiple, discounted back at 15%, with upside tied to faster‑than‑modeled subscriber uptake and higher attachment rates. The main overhang, the analysts concede, is Starlink’s ability to undercut pricing by launching its own constellation at cost.
SPCX – Neutral, $156 Price Target
SpaceX is initiated at Neutral with a $156 target and described as “a space stock, but really an AI play,” reflecting Piper’s view that the real prize is orbital AI data centers and low‑cost tokens powering a multitrillion‑dollar AI applications market.
The analysts say they are “comfortable underwriting the multi‑year thesis” after following Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) for a decade, but flag several idiosyncratic near‑term headwinds: staged post‑IPO lockup expirations, an opaque and potentially enormous capex curve for building orbital compute, and uncertainty around any Tesla acquisition or tie‑up.
“We believe in upside over multiple years,” they write, “but over a 1‑year term, we’re hesitant,” noting that discounted cash‑flow work is “hard” when the end markets for space‑based AI and connectivity are still highly nebulous.
RKLB – Neutral, $83 Price Target
Rocket Lab also lands at Neutral, with an $83 target and a narrative that casts it as the most credible “No. 2” launch and space‑systems player behind SpaceX.
Piper highlights Rocket Lab’s “hardcore engineering” culture under founder and CEO Peter Beck, nearly 90 successful Electron orbital launches and the forthcoming reusable Neutron rocket as evidence it is solving “the hard problem: rockets” and nudging the industry toward a duopolistic launch structure.
At the same time, space systems already account for roughly two‑thirds of FY25 revenue, and the planned Iridium acquisition adds a 66‑satellite LEO narrowband network with recurring voice and data revenue, giving Rocket Lab a three‑legged stool of launch, spacecraft and services.
“Unfortunately, RKLB isn’t a secret,” the analysts caution, pointing out that the stock trades at a premium revenue multiple versus SpaceX and is likely to “track along with SPCX in the coming year” rather than generate independent alpha, even if Neutron milestones, Space Development Agency wins and government backlog all break right.
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