One of the most bullish investor surveys on record arrived with its own warning attached.
The same fund managers calling a record no-landing economy now rank AI hyperscaler capex as the likeliest trigger of a systemic credit event.
A Record 54% Of Fund Managers Expect No Landing
A record 54% of respondents to Bank of America’s July Global Fund Manager Survey expect no landing for the global economy over the next 12 months, according to the report published July 14.
Another 39% expect a soft landing. Just 2% expect a hard landing, a record low.
Recession risk has never been priced this far out of the picture.
Growth optimism moved with it. Net 21% now expect a stronger economy, a five-month high, reversing from net 1% expecting weaker growth in June.
The share describing the next year as an economic boom — above-trend growth with above-trend inflation — rose to 41% from 36%, the highest since February 2022.
Stagflation expectations fell to 47% from 58%.
Oil Drags Inflation Forecasts Down: No Fed Hike In Sight
Investors cut their year-end 2026 oil forecast by 17%, from $86 per barrel to $71, on a weighted-average basis. Only 2% expect crude above $90 by December.
Lower crude feeds lower headline inflation, which feeds a Fed that does not move.
Net 4% of investors now expect lower global inflation in 12 months, a swing from net 45% expecting higher inflation in June and the lowest reading since January 2025.
Rate expectations followed.
Net 1% expect higher short-term rates, down from 34%. Asked whether the Fed would hike before the November midterms, 83% said no.
48% Say AI Hyperscaler Capex Is The Next Systemic Credit Event
Asked to name the most likely source of a systemic credit event, 48% of investors pointed at AI hyperscaler capex, the largest single answer, ahead of private credit at 34% and consumer credit at 5%.
Asked to name the biggest tail risk, 45% said AI bubble, up from 28% in June and displacing second-wave inflation, which fell to 26%.
And asked to name the most crowded trade in the world, 82% said long global semiconductors – as tracked by the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SOXX). This is the most lopsided answer the survey has produced in years.
That is the contradiction the July survey leaves on the table: nobody is selling the trade they fear most.
They are not exiting it.
Technology allocation slipped to net 18% overweight from net 26%, a trim rather than a rotation.
Only 28% expect a hyperscaler to announce a capex cut this year. And 48% say AI stocks are not in a bubble, against 43% who say they are.
At the stage of the cycle, 52% place AI stocks in the boom phase, where momentum attracts more buyers. Another 23% say euphoria, where valuations reach extremes.
BofA’s Contrarian Pain Trades: Duration, Dividend, Defensives
BofA’s contrarian read follows from the extremes.
Against a hawkish Fed surprise, the bank’s analyst Michael Hartnett flags long staples and gold versus short semiconductors and healthcare.
Against a peak-boom outcome, it flags long bonds, UK equities and high-dividend yielders versus short industrials and banks.
That last leg has a tell. For the first time since May 2017, investors expect low-dividend-yield stocks to outperform high-dividend-yield stocks.
Photo: YAKOBCHUK V on Shutterstock.com
