Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) has already become one of the world’s most valuable public companies, but Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes its biggest growth story can be summed up in one surprisingly small number.
Less than 1%.
That’s how much of the global telecom and broadband market Starlink has penetrated, according to Ives, despite growing to roughly 12 million subscribers with an average revenue per user of about $66 across its consumer and enterprise offerings.
For Ives, that isn’t a sign of maturity—it’s evidence that SpaceX’s largest business is still in its earliest stages.
The Starlink Opportunity
Initiating coverage on SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target, Ives argued that Starlink remains the company’s primary profitability engine thanks to its recurring subscription revenue.
More importantly, he believes the satellite internet business has barely scratched the surface of its addressable market.
With less than 1% penetration of the global telecom and broadband opportunity, Ives sees significant room for subscriber growth even before accounting for newer initiatives such as direct-to-device cellular connectivity.
That recurring revenue base also differentiates SpaceX from traditional aerospace companies, providing investors with a business that resembles a telecommunications platform as much as a launch provider.
More Than Rockets
While SpaceX is widely associated with reusable rockets and ambitious Mars missions, Wedbush’s investment thesis places Starlink at the center of the story.
The firm’s note argues that the launch business and Starship’s expanding payload capacity ultimately serve a larger purpose: enabling Starlink to deploy satellites more efficiently, expand network capacity and reinforce what has become the company’s most profitable segment.
In other words, the rockets increasingly support the broadband business—not the other way around.
That dynamic is one reason Ives believes SpaceX should be viewed as more than a space company, describing it as a future hyperscaler with businesses spanning connectivity, launch services and AI infrastructure.
The Bigger Picture
For investors, the less-than-1% figure helps explain why SpaceX continues to attract bullish long-term forecasts despite already commanding a market capitalization above $2 trillion.
Rather than focusing on the subscribers Starlink has already added, Ives is focused on the customers it has yet to reach.
If satellite broadband continues expanding into underserved markets while direct-to-device services gain traction, today’s 12 million subscribers could represent only a fraction of Starlink’s long-term opportunity.
That makes the smallest number in Wedbush’s initiation note arguably its most important one. For Ives, SpaceX’s bull case isn’t built on what Starlink has already achieved—it’s built on how much of the market still remains untapped.
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