Wall Street has spent years debating how to value Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA). Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) may prove even harder.
While investors focus on the company’s blockbuster IPO and trillion-dollar valuation, WisdomTree’s Christopher Gannatti believes the real story may be the lack of consensus around what SpaceX actually is.
“The most underappreciated implication isn’t about flows or index mechanics,” Gannatti, Global Head of Research at WisdomTree, told Benzinga in an email.
Instead, he argues that SpaceX is entering public markets with a business model that doesn’t fit neatly into any existing category.
Rocket Company Or AI Play?
“SpaceX is not simply a rocket company going public,” Gannatti said.
The company has increasingly positioned itself as more than a launch provider. Alongside its launch business, SpaceX operates Starlink, one of the world’s largest satellite broadband networks, while also advancing plans tied to AI infrastructure and orbital computing.
Gannatti believes that creates an unusual challenge for investors attempting to value the stock.
The Valuation Puzzle
“Analysts will need to build valuation models that blend launch economics, broadband subscriber metrics, and AI capex narratives in the same DCF,” he said.
That means investors may find themselves comparing SpaceX to aerospace contractors, telecom operators and AI infrastructure companies—all at the same time.
The result is likely to be a much wider range of valuation opinions than investors typically see with newly public companies.
For bulls, SpaceX is a platform company with exposure to multiple massive growth markets. Skeptics, meanwhile, may question whether future ambitions justify the premium valuation.
Volatility And Opportunity
Gannatti doesn’t expect that debate to be resolved anytime soon.
In fact, he believes the disagreement itself could become one of the stock’s defining characteristics.
“That complexity will generate persistent disagreement about fair value,” he said.
And for investors, that may not necessarily be a bad thing. “Persistent disagreement is the raw material for both volatility and opportunity.”
As SpaceX begins life as a public company, Wall Street may discover that the biggest question isn’t whether the stock is expensive. It’s whether anyone can agree on what business they’re actually valuing.
Photo Courtesy WisdomTree PR
